571
FXUS64 KEPZ 130035
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
635 PM MDT Thu Jun 12 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 625 PM MDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Quick update to the forecast to add smoke to the grids in vicinity
of the Trout Fire up in the Gila. We`ll probably see smoke
settling and getting trapped in the Mimbres Valley and Sapillo
Creek Valley (including Lake Roberts) late tonight into tomorrow
morning.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

 -  Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms through Thursday
    favoring area mountains with gusty outflows into the lowlands.

 -  Seasonable temperatures Wednesday, with heat building Friday
    through the weekend. Hottest temperatures Sunday and Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1100 AM MDT Thu Jun 12 2025

UL ridge is beginning to build into the Desert SW from Northern
Mexico. This will increase temperatures through the weekend.
Initially there will be enough moisture for scattered mountain and
isolated lowland showers and storms this afternoon, but increasing
subsidence and decreasing moisture will all but eliminate those
chances into this weekend. Only the Sacramento Mountains may see a
stray storm or two. The UL high will center itself over NM by
Sunday, with a 500 mb height at 595 dm. Temperatures will climb
well into the 100s with El Paso and parts of the Texas Rio Grande
threatening 110 by Sunday (40% chance). By Monday, the high will
begin to flatten but with SW flow developing in its place. Monday
will be just as hot as Sunday. Temperatures finally begin
trending downward on Tuesday with the loss of heights but will
still be near heat advisory criteria. Current forecast shows all
locations back below heat advisory criteria by Wednesday. A Heat
Advisory is in effect for the Texas RGV from Friday afternoon through
Midnight Tuesday AM, but it will almost certainly need to be
expanded into portions of the New Mexico lowlands to cover Sunday,
Monday, and perhaps Saturday. We may also need to expand the Heat
Advisory into Tuesday given current forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 PM MDT Thu Jun 12 2025

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through the period,
with deeper convection sliding just east of the Guadalupe and
Sacramento Mountains. Higher level smoke from the Trout Fire in
the Gila could drift by DMN, but expect it will stay aloft.
Although not affecting any TAF sites, expect smoke to settle into
valleys around the fire, including the Sapillo Creek and Mimbres
Valleys, overnight and into the early morning hours.

Light northerly winds Friday morning will shift to the west in the
afternoon, remaining around 10-12 knots, with a few gusts around
20 knots after 20Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1100 AM MDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Very dry and hot conditions are expected through the forecast
cycle. Min RH values will drop into the single digits each
afternoon with the mountains in the teens. Winds will top out
around 10 MPH each afternoon. The mountains, especially the
Sacramento Mountains, have a low chance for a shower or
thunderstorm, particularly this afternoon. Venting will range from
good to excellent daily.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  75 105  75 106 /  10   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            66  99  66 100 /  10   0  10   0
Las Cruces               67 100  67 102 /  10   0   0   0
Alamogordo               66  99  67 102 /  10   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               52  77  54  79 /  10  10   0  10
Truth or Consequences    69 100  69 102 /  10   0   0   0
Silver City              63  92  63  95 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   67 102  66 104 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                65  98  64 101 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       74 101  74 104 /  10   0   0   0
Dell City                66 102  67 104 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             70 107  70 107 /  10   0  10   0
Loma Linda               68  96  69  98 /  10   0   0   0
Fabens                   70 105  70 106 /  10   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             70 100  69 103 /  10   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           75 101  75 103 /  10   0   0   0
Jornada Range            64 100  64 102 /  10   0   0   0
Hatch                    65 102  64 104 /  10   0   0   0
Columbus                 73 101  71 104 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                68  99  68 101 /  10   0   0   0
Mayhill                  57  88  57  91 /  10  20   0  10
Mescalero                56  88  58  91 /  10  10   0  10
Timberon                 55  86  56  88 /  10  10   0   0
Winston                  56  91  56  94 /  10  10   0   0
Hillsboro                65  99  65 101 /  10   0   0   0
Spaceport                63  99  63 101 /  10   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             57  94  56  96 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   62  96  62  98 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    61  99  60 102 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               60  94  60  98 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  66  95  64  98 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   66  99  65 101 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  65  99  65 101 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           66  98  66 101 /  10   0  10   0
Cloverdale               65  92  65  96 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from noon Friday to midnight MDT Monday night for
     Eastern/Central El Paso County-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern
     El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-Rio Grande Valley of
     Eastern Hudspeth County.

NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...25-Hardiman