616
FXUS64 KEPZ 120448
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1048 PM MDT Wed Jun 11 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

 -  Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms through Thursday
    favoring area mountains with gusty outflows into the lowlands.

 -  Seasonable temperatures Wednesday, with heat building Friday
    through the weekend. Hottest temperatures Sunday and Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1035 PM MDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Low pressure system responsible for the previous days` unsettled
weather will whisk off into the MS Valley Thursday, allowing for a
ridge of high pressure to build in its wake. H5 pressure heights
will go from a seasonable 584dam to a balmy 589dam by Thursday
afternoon. Afternoon highs will respond in turn, with most locales
seeing around a 5F to 8F increase compared to Wednesday`s readings.
Recycled moisture across the high terrain may lend to a storm or two
in the afternoon across the Sacramento Mts.

The high center, parked in the Pacific, will begin nosing its way
into the Baja Thursday night, taking up residence in northern MX
Friday morning. Daytime highs will inch up another degree or two as
a result, with 100F becoming more widespread across the lowland
deserts and RGV. The high meanders northward on Saturday,
strengthening in its trek as it centers over the Bootheel.

The heat will be on from this point forward as its 595dam center
wobbles around southern NM with heat advisories likely being needed
for most lowland zones. The uncertainty lies in whether the heat
will intensify further into Sunday and Monday. Position of the high
lends itself to more northerly to northeasterly flow aloft with
quasi-easterly flow at the surface, two conditions that don`t
necessarily lend well to extreme heat under a 595dam high. This is
where there`s been a lack of run-to-run consistency amongst the
extended guidance, with some suggesting a more western position of
the high, while other runs have favored the high sitting squarely
over far west TX. The NBM seems excitable as to the idea of the
latter, tossing in a sweltering 109F for Sunday and Monday for El
Paso and its neighbors south in the RGV. Ultimately, the position
and strength of the high will dictate whether or not the Borderland
becomes subject to extreme heat early next week.

Meanwhile, a potent upper low dips into NorCal, its sights set on
the Great Basin. Frigid by comparison, the 570dam low will swing
eastward, helping to squash the oppressive high on Tuesday. Our
H5 pressure heights will fall in response, bringing relief to the
heat. As to how much? Well, the GFS suggests less dramatic
cooling, with heights falling from 595dam Monday to 589dam on
Tuesday. The ECMWF presents a different solution, turning the
system into a cutoff low that sweeps into the CWA Tuesday. Either
way, it looks like relief is in store come Wednesday, whether it`s
a few degrees or something more substantial. Stay tuned...

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1035 PM MDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Isold shwrs moving in from centrl NM will bring gusty and erratic
winds early in the TAF period, primarily to KTCS and KLRU.
Activity should taper off as migrates swd, clearing the area aft
12/08Z. Light and VRB winds will prevail overnight. Typical
breezes expected in the aftn with gusts under 20kts. Isold tstms
in the aftn will favor the high terrain.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1058 AM MDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Fire danger will be low through the forecast period. Isolated to
scattered thunderstorms develop this afternoon in the higher
terrain, resulting in gusty and erratic outflow winds. Slightly
better storm chances for the Gila Region compared to the Sacs
today, diminishing by the evening. Dry lightning will be possible
as low-level moisture decreases. Similar weather is expected for
Thursday, more favoring the Sacs. Gusty outflows to 40 mph can
reach the lowlands into the evening through Thursday. Outside of
gusty winds, light flow from the west is expected in the short
term. Thereafter, minimal rain/storm chances are forecast as
upper ridging shifts overhead. Winds will be light and mostly from
the west into the weekend as temperatures warm to well above
normal Sun/Mon.

Min RHs today will be 20-30% in FWZ 113, 8-20% elsewhere; falling
to 5-15% by Friday. Vent rates range from good to excellent.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  73 102  76 105 /  10   0  10   0
Sierra Blanca            64  96  66  98 /   0  10  10   0
Las Cruces               65  99  67 100 /  20  10  10   0
Alamogordo               64  98  67 101 /  10  10  10   0
Cloudcroft               50  75  53  77 /  20  20  10  10
Truth or Consequences    68  98  69 100 /  30  10  10   0
Silver City              62  92  63  92 /  20  10   0   0
Deming                   65 102  67 103 /  10   0   0   0
Lordsburg                64  97  65  99 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       72 100  74 103 /  10   0  10   0
Dell City                64  99  66 103 /  10  10  10   0
Fort Hancock             69 104  70 106 /  10   0  10   0
Loma Linda               67  94  69  95 /  10   0  10   0
Fabens                   69 102  71 104 /  10   0  10   0
Santa Teresa             67  99  69 101 /  10   0  10   0
White Sands HQ           72 100  74 101 /  20  10  10   0
Jornada Range            63  99  63 100 /  20  10  10   0
Hatch                    64 101  65 103 /  20  10  10   0
Columbus                 69 102  72 102 /  10   0   0   0
Orogrande                67  97  68  99 /  10  10  10   0
Mayhill                  54  86  56  88 /  10  30  10  10
Mescalero                54  86  56  88 /  20  20  10  10
Timberon                 51  84  55  86 /  10  20  10  10
Winston                  55  90  56  92 /  30  20  10   0
Hillsboro                63  97  64  99 /  20  10   0   0
Spaceport                61  97  63  99 /  20  10  10   0
Lake Roberts             57  93  56  94 /  20  10   0   0
Hurley                   62  95  62  95 /  20   0   0   0
Cliff                    61  99  61  99 /  10   0   0   0
Mule Creek               60  94  60  95 /  10   0   0   0
Faywood                  64  95  66  95 /  20  10   0   0
Animas                   66  99  66 100 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  65  98  66  99 /  10   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           66  98  66  98 /  10   0  10   0
Cloverdale               64  92  65  93 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...99